Zimbabwe faces worst food deficit since 1950

by Staff reporter

Zimbabwe is bracing for another potentially severe climate shock, with humanitarian agencies warning that a rapidly intensifying El Niño could reach "exceptional strength" at a critical time for the country's vulnerable agricultural sector.

According to the latest regional preparedness alert issued on August 28, the weather phenomenon is expected to persist from July 2026 to March 2027, with more than a 90 percent likelihood of reaching very strong intensity.

The forecast has raised concerns for Zimbabwe's smallholder farmers, as the anticipated dry conditions are expected to intensify during the October-to-April rainy season, coinciding with the country's main planting and crop-growing period.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), working with regional climate partners, warned that there is a 70 percent chance that rainfall deficits between October and December will exceed those recorded during any El Niño year since 1950.

The warning comes as Zimbabwe continues to recover from the devastating 2023/24 drought, which prompted Government to declare a national state of disaster.

That drought severely affected crops, livestock pasture and water supplies, while water shortages also contributed to heightened risks of cholera and other disease outbreaks.

Although improved harvests during the 2025/26 agricultural season have provided some relief, humanitarian agencies say significant vulnerabilities remain.

OCHA has classified Zimbabwe as a country of "high concern" in its regional risk tracker.

Climate projections indicate that rural households in areas expected to experience production deficits could face Stressed (Phase 2) conditions, deteriorating to Crisis (Phase 3) between October 2026 and January 2027.

The deterioration is expected to be driven by reduced agricultural production, declining access to food and high fuel and transport costs.

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Zimbabwe is not the only country facing the threat.

Zambia and Angola have also been classified as countries of high concern, while Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique face very high levels of risk.

Across Southern Africa, an estimated 13.3 million people are already experiencing acute food insecurity, increasing fears that another major climate shock could reverse recent recovery gains.

Authorities and humanitarian agencies are already implementing measures intended to reduce the impact of the anticipated drought.

OCHA confirmed that Zimbabwe has activated drought anticipatory action, including early interventions such as the distribution of drought-tolerant seed varieties, livestock protection measures and water-harvesting initiatives.

The measures are intended to reach vulnerable communities before planting begins, giving farmers an opportunity to prepare for potentially poor rainfall.

However, humanitarian agencies face a significant funding shortfall, with approximately 80 percent of planned mitigation activities currently unfunded.

Experts say the next two to three months represent a critical window for Zimbabwe and other countries in the region to strengthen grain and water reserves and implement preventative measures.

Humanitarian partners have warned that funding released after October could arrive too late to prevent avoidable losses of crops, livestock and livelihoods.

With the country's rural communities still carrying the effects of the previous drought, the latest El Niño forecast has heightened concerns over food security, water availability and rural livelihoods heading into the 2026/27 agricultural season.
Source - The Standard